Sugar Bowl Preview And Prediction
“These guys have got a really good team. They beat TCU in the [Big 12] Championship game. They were ahead 28-10 in the first game they played against them. This is a really good team. They can run the ball. They’re physical. They’ve got a good offensive line. They’ve got a good runner. The quarterback’s played well. They’ve got good skill guys on offense. Their defense plays physical, tough, come out of the top and strike you. This is a good old-fashioned, well-coached, disinclined, tough, good football team. They could make an argument since they beat one of the teams that’s in the playoffs that also maybe they should be in the playoffs. I think this is a really good team.”…Nick Saban on K-State.
This quote by Nick Saban is about all he has said about the K-State team that his fifth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will play on Saturday in the Sugar Bowl. I have watched two Nick Saban press conferences since the Sugar Bowl matchup was announced, and Saban projects that this Crimson Tide bunch is very confident going into this game. Quarterback Bryce Young and stud All-American linebacker Will Anderson, possibly both top-5 picks in the upcoming NFL draft, have decided to play. Make no mistake. Alabama wants to win this game, and they are going into it with guns fully loaded. They want to prove that the playoff committee made a mistake by not taking them as one of the top four teams in the college football playoff.
On paper, this game looks like a mismatch, as I perused offensive and defensive statistics for each team. Normally I can find somewhere that K-State might have an advantage, but in this case, Alabama is near the top of the country in many offensive and defensive categories.
Total offense
Alabama 13th ( 476 ypg)
K-State 43rd (420 ypg)
Passing offense
Alabama 23rd (278 ypg)
K-State 92nd (211 ypg)
Rushing offense
K-State 16th (210 ypg)
Alabama 30th (197 ypg)
Total defense
Alabama 15th (311 ypg)
K-State 54th (366 ypg)
Rush defense
Alabama 31st (125 ypg)
K-State 63rd (149 ypg)
Pass defense
Alabama 17th (186 ypg)
K-State 56th (217 ypg)
One area K-State may have a slight advantage is in the running game. K-State ranks 16th in the country in rushing yards at 210 yards per game, and Alabama ranks 31st in rushing defense, giving up 125 yards per game. I like K-State’s chances if they run for 125 to 175 yards in this game, but I am not sure it will happen.
Another advantage for K-State may be the Wildcat defensive line versus Alabama’s offensive line. Five Crimson Tide offensive linemen entered the transfer portal after the regular season, including one starter. It could affect Alabama’s ability to run the ball and pass protect, but it really affects the depth of the line. There are still plenty of blue-chip offensive linemen on that roster, so it may not make much of a difference, if at all.
Although Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young gets a lot of deserved hype, comparing the two starting quarterbacks based on their statistics shows they are pretty even. Young has a 156.46 passer rating with 27 touchdowns, five interceptions, 3007 passing yards, and a 64% completion percentage. Will Howard has a 162.21 passer rating, with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions for 1423 yards, and a 62% completion percentage.
The Alabama secondary will be the best secondary that Will Howard has faced this season. They are stacked with All-American and All-SEC NFL talent. Howard must avoid throwing interceptions in this game. K-State’s receivers may have a hard time getting open against this secondary. Collin Klien will have to scheme like heck in order for K-State’s passing game to be successful. I think he is up to the task. We may see a lot of K-State’s tight ends during the game.
Another player that worries me on the Alabama defense is outside rush linebacker, Will Anderson. Anderson had 17 tackles for loss and ten sacks on the season. Both lead the team. Last season, he had 17.5 sacks. He was a consensus-first-team all-American both in 2021 and 2022, making him the first two time unanimous All-American in Alabama history. Considering all the talented players the Crimson Tide have had over the years, that is an unbelievable accomplishment. Can K-State contain him or at least slow him down? It will be interesting to see if they can and, if so, it could be a key to winning the game.
All that said, it will be a tough chore for K-State to get the victory against Alabama. Both teams are coming in “guns a loaded,” but Alabama is the most talented team that K-State will face, not only this season, but maybe ever. To stay competitive or win the game, K-State cannot affort to get behind big early, and they can’t turn the ball over. That is what I am most concerned about. While I think K-State can win this game, history tells me that the Wildcats struggle in these games against top-10 opponents. As in, they have yet to beat a top-10 opponent in a bowl game in the history of the program. Until that happens, I am not going to predict it to happen. I think Alabama gets out to an early lead, but K-State fights and keeps it pretty close. In the end, Alabama comes out on top by a score of 34-20.