We are a little over a week away from K-State kicking off the 2023 football season against Southeast Missouri State on September 2nd. I have been intrigued when looking at the Big 12 preseason predictions regarding the order of finish in the Big 12. For the first time in many years, there isn’t a round-robin schedule where everyone plays everyone. Nobody has the same schedule or plays the same teams, so the difficulty of the schedule will impact how things shake out. How will these schedules affect whether or not K-State can make the Big 12 championship game this fall?

I looked at the schedules for every team and did a quick tally of wins and losses as I saw it. This exercise made me realize that K-State’s path to a Big 12 championship will not be easy. I broke down each team’s wins and losses and predicted the league order of finish.

1) Texas

Wins: Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, BYU, K-State, TCU, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.
Losses: None.

Prediction: 9-0. I believe Texas is legit this year and has a good shot at running the table in the Big 12. They’ve got some tough games, but they’ll be favored in every one of them.

2) Oklahoma State

Wins: Iowa State, K-State, Kansas, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, UCF, Houston, and BYU.
Losses: Texas.

Prediction: 8-1. I think more highly of Oklahoma State than most, but this prediction is mostly schedule-driven. The Cowboys play all four league newcomers, and I think they’ll beat all of them. They get K-State at home on a Friday night, and they have Oklahoma at home. The schedule is set up nicely for them.

3) Texas Tech

Wins: West Virginia, Houston, K-State, BYU, TCU, Kansas, UCF.
Losses: Baylor, Texas.

Prediction: 7-2. I may be overvaluing Texas Tech, but they have a great shot at 7-2 in the league. The schedule isn’t easy. K-State and TCU could be flipped to losses, and then it’s a different finish for the Red Raiders.

4) K-State

Wins: UCF, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State.
Losses: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas.

Prediction: 6-3. This is my best guess at this point. If the Wildcats had Oklahoma State’s schedule, I’d like their chances of going undefeated in the Big 12. But unfortunately, they don’t.

4) Oklahoma

Wins: Cincinnati, Iowa State, UCF, Kansas, West Virginia, BYU
Losses: Texas, Oklahoma State, TCU

Prediction: 6-3. I feel pretty confident that Oklahoma will get to six wins in the league. They might get more than that. Six wins may be their floor.

4) TCU

Wins: Houston, West Virginia, Iowa State, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma
Losses: K-State, Texas Tech, Texas.

Prediction: 6-3. I don’t have a good feel for how good TCU will be this season. They lost a lot from last year’s team, so it will be a matter of how they can replace what they lost. Their schedule is not easy.

4) Baylor

Wins: UCF, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Houston, West Virginia
Losses: Texas, K-State, TCU.

Prediction: 6-3. Baylor is another wildcard to me. They were great two years ago and took a step back last season. I feel like they can get to six league wins in 2023.

8) BYU

Wins: Kansas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Iowa State
Losses: TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Prediction: 4-5. Not an easy schedule for BYU. I think they’ll get to four wins.

8) UCF

Wins: Kansas, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Houston
Losses: K-State, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech

Prediction: 4-5. At this point, it’s hard to tell at this point how good or bad UCF may be.

10) Cincinnati

Wins: Iowa State, Kansas
Losses: Oklahoma, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF, Houston, West Virginia

Prediction: 2-7. I’ll give the Bearcats the KU and Iowa State wins since they get them both at home, but those games could go either way.

10) Houston

Wins: West Virginia, Cincinnati
Losses: TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, K-State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF.

Prediction: 2-7. I may be undervaluing the Cougars, but the schedule is pretty brutal.

10) West Virginia

Wins: UCF, Cincinnati.
Losses: Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Oklahoma State, BYU, Oklahoma, Baylor.

Prediction: 2-7.

13) Kansas

Wins: Iowa State.
Losses: BYU, Texas, UCF, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, K-State, Cincinnati.

Prediction: 1-8. I’m likely undervaluing Kansas, but this schedule isn’t easy. They’ll probably get a few more wins somewhere, but I’m not predicting it.

14) Iowa State

Wins: None
Losses: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Texas, Kansas State

Prediction: 0-9. I predict a long season for the Cyclones. They could get some wins against Cincinnati, BYU, or Kansas, but I don’t see them winning any of their other games.

What does all of this mean for K-State football in 2023? It will be tough for the Wildcats to get back to the Big 12 championship game. They can’t control who they play or who other teams play. I think their schedule is a bit more difficult than some, but there are some teams, like Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, that will benefit from an easier schedule and may finish above K-State in the conference standings because of it.

K-State plays five of the six teams picked to finish in the top half of the league by the media. Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech play only three of the six. If the preseason media poll is an accurate poll of how the league will shake out, K-State, along with Texas and TCU, who also play five of the six top-half teams, have a more difficult schedule and, therefore, have a more difficult path to the Big 12 championship game.