One of the biggest questions for K-State going into the 2024 football season is the offense breaking in a new quarterback with two new offensive coordinators, Conor Riley and Matt Wells. Officially, Riley is listed as the offensive coordinator and Wells is the co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach/associate head coach. One would assume that Riley, K-State’s offensive line coach the previous five seasons, will call plays with input from Wells. They have plenty of weapons to work with, but there will likely be many hiccups and ups and downs as everyone gets comfortable. Riley is an unknown commodity as the primary play-caller, minus his interim status as offensive coordinator during the Pop-Tart’s Bowl. Wells has a long history as an offensive coordinator and head coach with his expertise being on the offensive side of the ball. What kind of positive impact can or should we expect from Wells joining the K-State staff this season? The data may provide some answers.

Matt Wells was promoted to offensive coordinator at Utah State in 2012 and to head coach in 2013. Here are the total offense ratings for Utah State during those years:

2012 Utah State offensive coordinator: Total offense: 21st/469 yards per game
2013 Utah State head coach: Total offense: 60th//412 ypg
2014 Utah State head coach: Total offense: 87th/379 ypg
2015 Utah State head coach: Total offense: 93rd/371 ypg
2016 Utah State head coach: Total offense: 96th/377 ypg
2017 Utah State head coach: Total offense: 68th/397 ypg
2018 Utah State head coach: Total offense: 11th/499 ypg

Before Wells took the offensive coordinator job in 2012, Utah State was ranked 20th in total offense with 457 yards per game. His first year as coordinator saw a little bit of improvement, but nothing substantial. His offenses as head coach weren’t great, but his teams never averaged less than 371 yards per game. For comparison, from 2019 to 2021, K-State’s offenses under Courtney Messingham never averaged more than 362 yards per game or were any better than 97th in the country. We will likely not see a drop off to that level of offense, and K-State also has much more talent on offense now than they did those three years, and should be more productive.

Statistically, 2018 sticks out for Wells, as he had the 11th-ranked offense in the country when he had Jordan Love at quarterback. Utah State was 11-2 that season and Wells parlayed that success into a job offer from Texas Tech. Was Jordan Love the reason that Wells got the job at Tech? That is perhaps a discussion for another day.

In 2019, the year after Wells left for Texas Tech, Utah State’s offense dipped to 39th in the country, averaging 434 yards per game.

How did Wells’ offenses do at Texas Tech?

2019 Texas Tech head coach: Total offense: 11th/474 ypg (2018 Texas Tech was 12th/484 ypg)
2020 Texas Tech head coach: Total offense: 38th/430 ypg
2021 Texas Tech head coach: Total offense: 56th/417 ypg

Wells’ offenses got progressively worse every season and he was fired in the middle of the 2021 season.

The season after Wells was fired, Texas Tech’s offense made a big jump, finishing the 2022 season 22nd, at 461 yards per game.

In 2022 and 2023, Wells was an offensive assistant at Oklahoma. It is hard to tell how involved he was in the offense, but before his arrival, Oklahoma’s offense was ranked number 18, jumped to 13th in 2022, and to 3rd in 2023. Jeff Lebby was Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2022 (his first season serving in that position) and 2023.

After Collin Klein took over as K-State’s offensive coordinator in 2022, the offense was substantially better. The Wildcats were ranked 41st in the country (419 yards per game) in 2022 and 23rd in the country (445 yards per game) in 2023. I realize comparing Wells to Messingham and Klein is not completely apples to apples. Wells’ only season as an offensive coordinator was 2012. However, he has always coached and been involved in the offense of any team he has coached. For that reason, I think it is a valid comparison. Here is a snapshot of offenses under Wells versus K-State’s offenses under Chris Klieman.

Matt Wells at Utah State from 2012-2018: 415 yards per game.
Matt Wells at Texas Tech from 2019-2021: 440 yards per game.
Matt Wells at Oklahoma from 2022-2023: 491 yards per game.
Chris Klieman/Courtney Messingham at K-State from 2019 to 2021: 354 yards per game.
Chris Klieman/Collin Klein at K-State from 2022 to 2023: 432 yards per game.

What do I conclude from all of this? Matt Wells has proven success coaching offense and the offense should be just fine with him entering the fold. There will be a learning curve at first, but this should be a well-oiled machine by mid-season. I don’t foresee much of a dropoff, if any, in the offense from last season. Especially considering the added weapons they have at the skill positions. It will be fun to watch how the offense evolves as the season progresses.