So you’re telling me there’s a chance? That’s right. K-State has an opportunity to make the Big 12 championship game if they beat Iowa State on Saturday night, but a LOT of other things have to fall their way for them to be one of the two teams selected. If the Wildcats beat the Cyclones, two of the other three first-place teams must lose, and even then a spot is still not guaranteed. Other tie-breakers would determine the two teams that make it.

Here is what must happen for the Wildcats to have a shot, along with my thoughts on the likelihood of each occurring.

1.) Beat Iowa State

I am skeptical this is going to happen in the first place. What gives me hope is that Avery Johnson is healthy enough to run the ball within the Wildcat offense, which provides them with another weapon. On paper, it appears that K-State has an advantage running the ball. The Wildcats have the 3rdbest rushing offense in the Big 12, while the Cyclones have the second-worst rush defense in the league. If K-State can run the ball in this game, they have a good shot. I see this game as a coin flip.

2) Two of the following must lose: BYU, Arizona State, and Colorado.

Colorado plays Oklahoma State on Friday. Oklahoma State is winless in the Big 12 and hasn’t shown much sign of life, getting blown out several times lately. It seems very unlikely that Oklahoma State can pull off the upset.

Arizona State plays at Arizona on Saturday. Arizona is 2-6 in the Big 12 and got beat by TCU by 21 points last week. While this is a rivalry game and anything could happen, this upset also appears unlikely.

BYU plays Houston on Saturday night. Houston is 3-5 in the Big 12. Since beating K-State 24-19 on November 2nd, Houston has lost to Arizona 27-3 and Baylor 20-10. This game is another unlikely upset.

3) Baylor probably has to lose to Kansas.

Kansas beating Baylor is the most likely to happen of all of these scenarios, but this game is also the least likely to matter. Baylor might win some tiebreakers against K-State and, if that were the case, would get in the championship game ahead of the Wildcats. If Baylor loses and K-State wins, K-State will be ahead of them in the standings so no tiebreaker will be necessary.

The bottom line is that Lloyd Christmas had a better chance with Mary Swanson than K-State has at making the Big 12 championship game. One in a hundred? More like one in a million.

The Big 12 needs two divisions so that the teams in each division play a similar schedule. Then the two division winners would play in the Big 12 championship game. The way they have it set up now is a mess.