Analyzing the Similarities: K-State vs. Arizona State
Most of the time when I put together my game week previews and predictions, individual and team statistics help give me an idea of what may happen by showing where each team has an advantage and therefore give me an idea of what each team has to do to win. That strategy is proving extraordinarily difficult when comparing K-State and their opponent this Saturday, Arizona State. The teams are eerily similar. For example:
-Both teams are 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12.
-Arizona State is 8th in the Big 12 in scoring offense and K-State is 9th. Arizona State averages 31.6 points per game and K-State averages 31.2 points per game.
-K-State is 4th in scoring defense and Arizona State is 8th, but only two points separate them. K-State is giving up 21.7 points per game and Arizona State is giving up 23.8.
-K-State’s offense is 4th in the league, with 422.6 yards per game. Arizona State is 10th, with 399.6 yards per game.
-K-State’s defense is 4th in the Big 12, giving up 329.7 yards per game. Arizona State’s defense is 5th, giving up 330.8. That’s a one-yard per-game difference.
-K-State’s rushing offense is 3rd in the Big 12, with 203.8 yards per game. Arizona State’s is 4th, with 198.
-K-State’s rushing defense is number one in the Big 12, giving up 99.4 yards per game. Arizona State’s is 3rd, giving up 118.8.
-K-State’s passing offense is 10th in the Big 12, averaging 214.2 yards per game. Arizona State is 14th, averaging 201.6. Not even four yards a game difference.
-K-State’s pass defense is 10th in the Big 12, giving up 230.2 yards per game. Arizona State’s is 6th, giving up 212.
-This game will feature two of the best running backs in the Big 12, Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo and K-State’s DJ Giddens. Their statistics on the season are almost the same. Skattebo has played in one less game but has rushed for 1,001 yards on the season to DJ Giddens’ 995. Skattebo averages 5.8 yards per carry to Giddens’ 6.1. Skattebo averages 125 yards per game to Giddens’ 111.
-What about the quarterbacks? Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt ranks 6th in the Big 12, with a rating of 146.2. K-State’s Avery Johnson is 8th, with a rating of 141. Passing yards per game? Johnson is 10th with 210.2 yards per game. Leavitt is 11th with 203.9 yards per game. Avery Johnson averages 43 yards per game on the ground. Leavitt averages 38.
Boy, this is getting me nowhere.
-What about common opponents? Arizona State beat Oklahoma State by 21 points, 42-21. K-State beat Oklahoma State by 22 points, 42-20. K-State beat Kansas by two points, 29-27. Arizona State beat Kansas by four points, 35-31. Sigh.
These two teams look awfully similar to each other on paper. All this research does is tell me not to bet a penny on this game. However, Vegas thinks differently. They have K-State as an eight-point favorite. Who knows why?
I have no idea what will happen on Saturday, but I will give a prediction anyway. K-State 31 Arizona State 30.