From The Couch – K-State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Are you excited for the 2026 K-State football season? There is a distinct difference between the excitement that I see on social media and what I see “on the streets.: The Twitterverse (can we still call it that?) can’t wait to see the Collin Klein-led Wildcats decimate every opponent they face. But when I talk to K-State fans in person, there is a much more measured approach to the expectations of this season.
I fall in the “I just don’t know” camp. I was way off on my preseason prediction last season. K-State got derailed early, and there is an argument to be made that when Dylan Edwards fumbled a punt early in the first game of the season in Ireland against Iowa State, and his subsequent injury from kicking the bench on the sideline in frustration, sent the Wildcats on a nosedive they never recovered from. The team’s struggles eventually got to head coach Chris Kleiman, who had a breakdown after the Utah game, and he eventually “retired.”
I normally take great pride in my season predictions. I usually get it right within a game. However, I was completely wrong last year. I predicted K-State to go 11-1 on the season, and they finished 6-6. Ouch. Nevertheless, I’ve put it behind me, and it is time to look forward to 2026.
The news out of camp this week didn’t make me feel any better about the prospects for success this fall. Head coach Collin Klein announced that two of the team’s best offensive linemen are out for the entire season with injuries…
Klein said Pastore suffered a lower-body injury in practice. He was recently named a preseason All-Big 12 selection after starting all 12 games for the Wildcats at left tackle in 2025.
Fitzpatrick missed all of last season following a medical emergency during a summer workout. He transferred to Kansas State in January 2025 after two seasons at Ohio State.
What does all of this mean? “I just don’t know.” Although I do know it is not a positive development. I hope there is some depth at that position, and it won’t hurt the team much in the long run. I guess a positive thing about it is that it gives the “next man up” some time to practice with the “ones” and get up to speed by the time the first game gets here.
Normally, I break down each game on the schedule and figure out the probability that K-State wins or loses. It is nearly impossible to do this nowadays because of the transfer portal being what it is. Instead of what I’ve done in the past, I’ll give some thoughts on the schedule as a whole. If you haven’t seen the 2026 schedule yet, I’ve provided it here….
Nicholls, September 5th, 6:00PM
Washington State, September 12th 11:00AM
Tulane, September 19th, 11:00AM
at Cincinnati, September 26th
Houston, October 10
Kansas, October 17
at Arizona State, October 24
at Colorado, October 31
Oklahoma State, November 7
at TCU, November 14
Arizona, November 21
at Iowa State, November 28
My first impression? Wow, that’s an easy schedule. No Texas or Oklahoma anymore. No Texas Tech, Utah, or BYU, three of the favorites to win the Big 12. Houston is ranked in the preseason top 25 poll along with the three schools I mentioned, and K-State gets to play them in Manhattan. The game at TCU looks like a tough one. But looking at it through the prism of K-State entering the season with a new coaching staff and many new players, there aren’t any gimmes here, either. They could struggle out of the gate and go 1-2 in the non-conference, or they could easily win all three to start 3-0. “I just don’t know.” They could pull out a win against Houston on October 10th and go on a run and compete for the Big 12 Conference title. “I just don’t know.” They could also struggle learning the new coaching staff’s system and style and might have a hard time getting to six wins. “I just don’t know.”
What makes me optimistic about this season is the fact that quarterback Avery Johnson is back and has a lot of experience under center leading the Wildcats. I think Collin Klein is going to “cut him loose,” and we are going to see big numbers from him, both through the air and on the ground. I like what they have at running back, tight end, and wide receiver on offense, so despite the injuries on the offensive line, I think they’ll be just fine moving the ball and scoring.
Defensively? “I just don’t know,” but there are pieces there that I like. Most of the defense consists of players who have transferred into the program. We’ll have to see how they gel and perform as a unit. If the defense can perform at a high level, we will see a great season for the Wildcats.
For those of you who enjoy this preview every year and expect a win/loss prediction, I’ll go ahead and give it. I think 6-6 is quite doable, and if things really come together, they could compete near the top of the conference throughout the season. I wouldn’t say that if they didn’t have Avery Johnson under center. He is the key. I am looking forward to seeing what he can do with Klein as his head coach.
My minimum expectation is that they will become bowl-eligible. Anything less than that is a disappointment, and anything more than that is gravy.
I am interested in hearing your thoughts. What are you expecting of this football season? What is your win/loss prediction? Let me know in the comments.
